Doc Jensen at Entertainment Weekly made this lists of odds before the tragic deaths of Jin and Sun and the heroic death of Sayid. But it's still interesting to see what he thought about their possibilities as The Candidate, as well as our remaining Losties.
The entire article has more info. But here are the odds, as Doc Jensen sees them:
You got the sense from “Lighthouse” that Jacob really, really needs Jack to get over his bad self and dial into his Island destiny. The safe money is that said destiny is to spend eternity eating fish, spying on damned souls with magic mirrors, and plotting intricate redemption narratives for Island visitors.
It’s a fake-out! Jacob’s master plan all along has been to groom Ben as The Island’s new supreme being—but first, he’s had to break Ben of his pride and purge him of his sin, not to mention protect him from the Man In Black’s assassination plot. Bringing the castaways to The Island accomplishes both tasks. The most flattering theory of bad guy Ben is that knowingly or unknowingly he’s been producing challenges of character designed to prepare the castaways for their final conflict with Smokey. Actually, the total opposite is true. Jacob brought the castaways to The Island to test Ben’s character, intended to shape him into the kind of man worthy of Jacob’s loom-of-fate stool. Also, by deceiving Smokey into thinking Jack et. al. were his candidates, Jacob has been shielding Ben from Smokey — and co-opting Smokey into his plan to refine Ben’s soul.
Next to Ben, he’s the best yarn-spinner on The Island. He’s a precise judge of character. He’s also extremely well-read; judging from his library, he has a great grasp on universal themes like redemption and damnation, faith and reason. He also has great motivation to stay on The Island, as he killed a guy in Australia and should surely go to jail if he ever got back the civilization. Then again, maybe that sin makes him unqualified for Island divinity.
It’s about time The Island was ruled by a woman, don’t you think? She’s got a great name for a god. Also, Sun’s got the will and stamina for long-term redemption projects, as demonstrated by her unflagging search for Jin, who per my guestimations will be allowed to remain on The Island as her consort. They’ll get to bring Ji-Yeon over to The Island, too. I also think they can make the most of Island life. He fishes! She gardens! They know how to keep warm during cold evenings on the beach! Happily ever after on The Island will be like one long honeymoon for them.
Maybe the guy least interested in the job — which makes him the most dramatically interesting candidate for the job and therefore makes him an irresistible choice. Even though my Sun theory allows for Jin to stay, I suspect that the Jacob job is probably a solo act, and I think being alone would crush Hurley’s soul. The again, he’s got plenty of dead people for company. And really, who wouldn’t want to spend the rest of time hanging out with Ghost Michael?